Who's betting on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $47K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.2K by 77 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 89% 63 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 13 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
This market closed on October 26, 2026 and resolved No. $47K has been traded on it.
The smart money
89% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides.
Who holds it
77 wallets hold a position worth $1.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 76 of them.
- Holders
- 64
- Money on it
- $21
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $1.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory
9 more- Flávio Bolsonaro <2%$83K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Lula da Silva <2%$75K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-6%$67K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Lula da Silva 2-4%$64K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- Flávio Bolsonaro 2-4%$61K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Flávio Bolsonaro 6-8%$36K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Lula da Silva 6-8%$28K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-10%$17K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- Flávio Bolsonaro 10-12%$11K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?"?
77 wallets hold a position worth $1.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 76 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?"?
This market closed on October 26, 2026 and resolved No. $47K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
89% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 26, 2026 and resolved No. $47K has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.