Who's betting on “Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 91% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 31 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $55K traded all time
- Held now
- $12K by 120 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 91% 44 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 60% 76 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $55K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
91% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 29 points.
Who holds it
120 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 120 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $401 on it, $325K lifetime profit over 299 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is TronOG, with $2.9K on it, $60K lifetime profit over 417 markets (83% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $667 on No.
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 76
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 76%
- Snipers
- 1 · $667
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.4K on it
- 1LlamaLoco000045% won of 299 · noise$401+$325K lifetime
- 2EasyGoingA62% won of 186 · balanced$397+$19K lifetime
- 3ChainReaction-39250% won of 176 · balanced$198+$11K lifetime
- 40xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-176753254779448% won of 1,033 · whale$93+$35K lifetime
- 5goatboss70% won of 43 · balanced$89+$1.0K lifetime
No$11K on it
- 1TronOG83% won of 417 · whale$2.9K+$60K lifetime
- 20x5039…946d59% won of 557$1.5K−$3.0K lifetime
- 3DawnOfYemen75% won of 1,107 · whale$1.1K+$31K lifetime
- 4ScientiaRex82% won of 65$1.0K−$2.8K lifetime
- 5groth77% won of 495 · sniper$667+$146K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 36%No 65%Smart money: Yes
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?"?
120 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 120 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $401 on it, $325K lifetime profit over 299 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is TronOG, with $2.9K on it, $60K lifetime profit over 417 markets (83% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $55K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
91% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.