Who's betting on “Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 32 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $91K traded all time
- Held now
- $17K by 169 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 126 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 54% 43 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $91K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 34 points. A week ago, Yes by 30 points.
Who holds it
169 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 169 of them. The largest Yes holder is ImJustKen, with $530 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,080 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is simpleman, with $3.5K on it, $91K lifetime profit over 1,036 markets (53% won).
- Holders
- 126
- Money on it
- $2.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $15K
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.1K on it
- 1ImJustKen65% won of 1,080 · whale$530+$2.3M lifetime
- 2Car58% won of 1,784 · whale$237+$1.5M lifetime
- 3maritime630740% won of 377 · noise$177+$2.6K lifetime
- 4MaxEnt41% won of 365 · noise$129+$816 lifetime
- 50xd4f7…73bb76% won of 118 · balanced$88+$6.0K lifetime
No$15K on it
- 1simpleman53% won of 1,036 · whale$3.5K+$91K lifetime
- 2Retired-Davis58% won of 335$2.6K−$41K lifetime
- 30x6c10…df5c66% won of 1,065$1.8K−$70K lifetime
- 4bernardbulletin75% won of 1,126 · whale$1.1K+$198K lifetime
- 5DonVincero91% won of 253$787−$6.2K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
24 more- Donald Trump$71K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- Kamala Harris$70K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money split
- Hunter Biden$58K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez$58K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- Ivanka Trump$40K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- J.D. Vance$39K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Zohran Mamdani$36K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Tucker Carlson$31K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- MrBeast$30K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Andy Beshear$30K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: Yes
- Jon Ossoff$27K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Erika Kirk$27K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Katie Britt$26K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Pete Buttigieg$24K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
- Marjorie Taylor Greene$22K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Steve Bannon$21K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- Rand Paul$20K vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Rahm Emanuel$20K vol.Yes 23%No 77%Smart money: No
- Kristi Noem$20K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- Stephen A. Smith$20K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Oprah Winfrey$18K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Cory Booker$17K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money split
- Ted Cruz$17K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money split
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.$17K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?"?
169 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 169 of them. The largest Yes holder is ImJustKen, with $530 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,080 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is simpleman, with $3.5K on it, $91K lifetime profit over 1,036 markets (53% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $91K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 34 points. A week ago, Yes by 30 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.