Who's betting on “Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 99% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 69 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $96K traded all time
- Held now
- $14K by 45 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 30% 25 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 99% 20 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $96K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
30% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 69 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 63 points. A week ago, No by 76 points.
Who holds it
45 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 45 of them. The largest Yes holder is DegenOnChainTest, with $8 on it, $9.0K lifetime loss over 158 markets (38% won). The largest No holder is tetrase, with $3.5K on it, $973K lifetime profit over 1,216 markets (65% won).
- Holders
- 25
- Money on it
- $21
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 20
- Money on it
- $14K
- Holders' win rate
- 82%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$21 on it
- 1DegenOnChainTest38% won of 158$8−$9.0K lifetime
- 20xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$2+$61K lifetime
- 3meagainsttheworld76% won of 1,058 · whale$2+$142K lifetime
- 4youtube-trader25% won of 8,026$2−$6.5K lifetime
- 5BornAgain2680% won of 226$2−$5.1K lifetime
No$14K on it
- 1tetrase65% won of 1,216 · whale$3.5K+$973K lifetime
- 2VortexTrading88% won of 1,812 · grinder$3.1K+$2.8K lifetime
- 3scout89% won of 1,044 · whale$2.2K+$307K lifetime
- 4MrNoItAll90% won of 514 · whale$2.1K+$38K lifetime
- 5VortexBet96% won of 1,183 · grinder$1.7K+$2.5K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
1 moreOther big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?"?
45 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 45 of them. The largest Yes holder is DegenOnChainTest, with $8 on it, $9.0K lifetime loss over 158 markets (38% won). The largest No holder is tetrase, with $3.5K on it, $973K lifetime profit over 1,216 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $96K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
30% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 69 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 63 points. A week ago, No by 76 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.