Who's betting on “Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 93% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 22 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $10K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.7K by 119 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 93% 52 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 71% 59 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 37¢ and No at 63¢, a 63% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 30, 2026.
The smart money
93% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A week ago, Yes by 22 points.
Who holds it
119 wallets hold a position worth $2.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 111 of them. The largest Yes holder is petersohn, with $829 on it, $6.7K lifetime loss over 129 markets (41% won). The largest No holder is FrozenParasite, with $212 on it, $244K lifetime profit over 1,432 markets (71% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $212 on No.
- Holders
- 55
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Holders
- 64
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 1 · $212
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.6K on it
- 1petersohn41% won of 129$829−$6.7K lifetime
- 2firegold69% won of 591 · whale$296+$16K lifetime
- 3.brain.54% won of 589 · whale$173+$6.4K lifetime
- 4Sweetcheeks73% won of 15$120−$230 lifetime
- 5BeastMan167% won of 15$65−$595 lifetime
No$1.1K on it
- 1FrozenParasite71% won of 1,432 · sniper$212+$244K lifetime
- 2Mandalorec63% won of 286 · balanced$207+$3.2K lifetime
- 3AiBird57% won of 1,279 · whale$154+$122K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$86+$255K lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$85−$377K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Core PCE YoY - August 2026
2 moreOther big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$959K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?"?
119 wallets hold a position worth $2.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 111 of them. The largest Yes holder is petersohn, with $829 on it, $6.7K lifetime loss over 129 markets (41% won). The largest No holder is FrozenParasite, with $212 on it, $244K lifetime profit over 1,432 markets (71% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 37¢ and No at 63¢, a 63% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 30, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
93% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A week ago, Yes by 22 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on September 30, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.