Who's betting on “Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in August?”?
Smart money leans No: 98% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 14 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $17K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.4K by 59 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 84% 39 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 98% 20 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $17K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 30, 2026.
The smart money
84% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 14 points.
Who holds it
59 wallets hold a position worth $6.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 59 of them.
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 20
- Money on it
- $4.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Core PCE YoY - August 2026
2 moreOther big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$973K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in August?"?
59 wallets hold a position worth $6.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 59 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in August?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $17K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 30, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
84% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on September 30, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.