Who's betting on “Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in August?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $17K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.6K by 74 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 96% 36 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 95% 38 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $17K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 30, 2026.
The smart money
96% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
74 wallets hold a position worth $5.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 74 of them. The largest Yes holder is CrazyCat-Kiwi, with $691 on it, $13K lifetime profit over 247 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is .brain., with $3.7K on it, $6.4K lifetime profit over 589 markets (54% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $28 on Yes.
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $875
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 1 · $28
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $4.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$875 on it
- 1CrazyCat-Kiwi45% won of 247 · noise$691+$13K lifetime
- 2JAMJAMJAM497% won of 836 · whale$117+$97K lifetime
- 3firegold69% won of 591 · whale$110+$16K lifetime
- 4FrozenParasite71% won of 1,432 · sniper$28+$244K lifetime
- 5BASSATS0152% won of 322 · whale$14+$1.8K lifetime
No$4.7K on it
- 1.brain.54% won of 589 · whale$3.7K+$6.4K lifetime
- 2petersohn41% won of 129$329−$6.7K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$111+$254K lifetime
- 40xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-17788104644939% won of 34,181 · noise$93+$22K lifetime
- 50x9a02…7e4695% won of 150$45−$1.1K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Core PCE YoY - August 2026
2 moreOther big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money split
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 77%No 24%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.0M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in August?"?
74 wallets hold a position worth $5.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 74 of them. The largest Yes holder is CrazyCat-Kiwi, with $691 on it, $13K lifetime profit over 247 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is .brain., with $3.7K on it, $6.4K lifetime profit over 589 markets (54% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in August?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $17K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 30, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
96% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on September 30, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.