Who's betting on “Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 65% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 23 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $178K traded all time
- Held now
- $75 by 96 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 65% 76 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 43% 20 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $178K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
The smart money
65% of the money on Yes and 43% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points. A week ago, Yes by 30 points.
Who holds it
96 wallets hold a position worth $75 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 96 of them. The largest Yes holder is 69dsfs, with $1 on it, $137 lifetime loss over 253 markets (39% won). The largest No holder is ahourse, with $33 on it, $381 lifetime loss over 35 markets (46% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on Yes.
- Holders
- 76
- Money on it
- $10
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Holders
- 20
- Money on it
- $65
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$10 on it
- 169dsfs39% won of 253$1−$137 lifetime
- 2planktonXD76% won of 6,321 · whale$1+$132K lifetime
- 3occasionalAwareness63% won of 1,003 · whale$1+$1.1M lifetime
- 40xB35435130E747646F1C81666FCa66D69E2a57958-177601175588033% won of 3$1−$120 lifetime
- 5balthazar53% won of 52,842 · whale$1+$1.2M lifetime
No$65 on it
- 1ahourse46% won of 35$33−$381 lifetime
- 2yes-yes-no36% won of 475 · noise$10+$8.0K lifetime
- 3wert460% won of 696 · balanced$10+$615 lifetime
- 4GoalieBear100% won of 32$2−$18 lifetime
- 5laile0095% won of 103 · grinder$2+$292 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
6 more- 100–200B$89K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 300–400B$84K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 600B+$64K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money split
- No IPO by December 31, 2027$51K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- 400–600B$34K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 200–300B$32K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?"?
96 wallets hold a position worth $75 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 96 of them. The largest Yes holder is 69dsfs, with $1 on it, $137 lifetime loss over 253 markets (39% won). The largest No holder is ahourse, with $33 on it, $381 lifetime loss over 35 markets (46% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $178K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
65% of the money on Yes and 43% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points. A week ago, Yes by 30 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.