Who's betting on “Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 85% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 21 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $20K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.3K by 69 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 63% 37 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 85% 32 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 91¢ and No at 9¢, a 91% implied chance of Yes. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 11, 2027.
The smart money
63% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 21 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
Who holds it
69 wallets hold a position worth $3.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 69 of them. The largest Yes holder is Jgyuig34, with $1.1K on it, $14K lifetime loss over 200 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is donthackme, with $28 on it, $829K lifetime profit over 87,178 markets (29% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $558 on Yes.
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $3.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 1 · $558
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $84
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.2K on it
No$84 on it
- 1donthackme29% won of 87,178 · noise$28+$829K lifetime
- 20x45e6Df48cCF5d1773D509C97052F819690cEC078-178211120799855% won of 2,232 · balanced$14+$2.1K lifetime
- 3qqqppp-l138% won of 7,231 · noise$12+$10K lifetime
- 4b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.98% won of 3,389 · whale$7+$22K lifetime
- 5IFZ65% won of 176 · balanced$5+$414 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
2 moreOther big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$802K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?"?
69 wallets hold a position worth $3.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 69 of them. The largest Yes holder is Jgyuig34, with $1.1K on it, $14K lifetime loss over 200 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is donthackme, with $28 on it, $829K lifetime profit over 87,178 markets (29% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 91¢ and No at 9¢, a 91% implied chance of Yes. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 11, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
63% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 21 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 11, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.