Who's betting on “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 68% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 10 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $264K traded all time
- Held now
- $71K by 211 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 58% 115 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 68% 95 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 40¢ and No at 60¢, a 60% implied chance of No. $264K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
58% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 14 points.
Who holds it
211 wallets hold a position worth $71K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 210 of them. The largest Yes holder is moli1, with $9.0K on it, $273 lifetime loss over 20 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is GollumGekko, with $5.3K on it, $290K lifetime profit over 1,183 markets (73% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $236 on No.
- Holders
- 115
- Money on it
- $28K
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 96
- Money on it
- $42K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 1 · $236
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$28K on it
- 1moli140% won of 20$9.0K−$273 lifetime
- 20xC81b7D9F4464C9985f5621492829ahdfc50% won of 236 · whale$2.9K+$12K lifetime
- 30x24321322b33abD6850aC01b7EDE421163% won of 208 · balanced$2.5K+$6.5K lifetime
- 4Roflan-ludoman57% won of 1,034 · whale$1.4K+$202K lifetime
- 588111260% won of 1,119 · whale$1.3K+$450K lifetime
No$42K on it
- 1GollumGekko73% won of 1,183 · whale$5.3K+$290K lifetime
- 2taishiji19% won of 16$5.2K−$2.0K lifetime
- 308052691% won of 11$4.8K+$712 lifetime
- 4MEPP62% won of 1,084 · whale$4.2K+$559K lifetime
- 5anquan26% won of 19$3.9K−$3.9K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
5 more- October 31, 2026$272K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- November 30, 2026$97K vol.Yes 29%No 71%Smart money: Yes
- September 30, 2026$233K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 5, 2026$43K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?$14K vol. · ClosedYes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?"?
211 wallets hold a position worth $71K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 210 of them. The largest Yes holder is moli1, with $9.0K on it, $273 lifetime loss over 20 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is GollumGekko, with $5.3K on it, $290K lifetime profit over 1,183 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 40¢ and No at 60¢, a 60% implied chance of No. $264K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
58% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.