Who's betting on “US x Cuba military clash in 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 65% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 15 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $285K traded all time
- Held now
- $30K by 409 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 65% 237 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 50% 172 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $285K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
65% of the money on Yes and 50% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 15 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
Who holds it
409 wallets hold a position worth $30K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 409 of them. The largest Yes holder is Betting2026withA, with $637 on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is dfdvbjgdhbh, with $7.3K on it, $10K lifetime loss over 20 markets (65% won).
- Holders
- 237
- Money on it
- $4.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Holders
- 172
- Money on it
- $26K
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4.3K on it
- 1Betting2026withAno record yet$637+$0 lifetime
- 2Optimus-55% won of 330 · whale$455+$121K lifetime
- 30xE0baAe7e7F862a408A662338Cf9658B1Ed3dfa03-177173166896350% won of 30 · noise$324+$3.7K lifetime
- 40xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-176753254779448% won of 1,033 · whale$259+$35K lifetime
- 5Zarshka62% won of 1,010 · whale$210+$18K lifetime
No$26K on it
- 1dfdvbjgdhbh65% won of 20$7.3K−$10K lifetime
- 2Votei14Voude2279% won of 499 · whale$5.9K+$182K lifetime
- 3geowatch87% won of 216 · balanced$1.0K+$5.4K lifetime
- 4yyyyyyy80% won of 640$977−$41K lifetime
- 5Vasiqwe42% won of 855 · noise$868+$13K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US x Cuba military clash in 2026?"?
409 wallets hold a position worth $30K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 409 of them. The largest Yes holder is Betting2026withA, with $637 on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is dfdvbjgdhbh, with $7.3K on it, $10K lifetime loss over 20 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x Cuba military clash in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $285K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
65% of the money on Yes and 50% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 15 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.