Who's betting on “US x China Military clash before 2027?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 74% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 11 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $219K traded all time
- Held now
- $34K by 371 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 74% 94 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 63% 276 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $219K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
74% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago, Yes by 11 points.
Who holds it
371 wallets hold a position worth $34K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 370 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794, with $154 on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,033 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $4.8K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 770 markets (74% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $86 on No.
- Holders
- 95
- Money on it
- $828
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Holders
- 276
- Money on it
- $33K
- Holders' win rate
- 80%
- Snipers
- 1 · $86
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$828 on it
- 10xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-176753254779448% won of 1,033 · whale$154+$35K lifetime
- 2coali1069% won of 183 · whale$151+$408K lifetime
- 3pretzel79% won of 157 · whale$72+$23K lifetime
- 4emiliaa88% won of 24 · balanced$70+$19 lifetime
- 50xC984C6B85126d25629F6Fa19CBa0b809513c9F72-176797598040181% won of 57$36−$173 lifetime
No$33K on it
- 1Avamax74% won of 770 · whale$4.8K+$17K lifetime
- 2Scoofy-Bubik96% won of 81$2.9K−$221 lifetime
- 3Rtrtrtrt72% won of 29 · balanced$2.8K+$3.9K lifetime
- 4llh91% won of 67$2.3K−$74K lifetime
- 50xrc85% won of 351 · whale$2.0K+$29K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US x China Military clash before 2027?"?
371 wallets hold a position worth $34K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 370 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794, with $154 on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,033 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $4.8K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 770 markets (74% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US x China Military clash before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $219K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago, Yes by 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.