Who's betting on “U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 58% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 35 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $78K traded all time
- Held now
- $14K by 648 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 23% 319 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 58% 329 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $78K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
23% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 34 points.
Who holds it
648 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 648 of them. The largest Yes holder is Get10, with $356 on it, $22K lifetime loss over 208 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is bazooka1, with $4.5K on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 236 markets (51% won).
- Holders
- 319
- Money on it
- $582
- Holders' win rate
- 50%
- Holders
- 329
- Money on it
- $14K
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$582 on it
- 1Get1048% won of 208$356−$22K lifetime
- 2Eia59% won of 1,231 · whale$56+$23K lifetime
- 3fledger88% won of 51 · balanced$11+$455 lifetime
- 40xc7e8…b56096% won of 55 · grinder$9+$490 lifetime
- 5paranoun68% won of 31$8−$498 lifetime
No$14K on it
- 1bazooka151% won of 236 · balanced$4.5K+$1.3K lifetime
- 2cezarn13288% won of 200$3.8K−$16K lifetime
- 3skywalker87765% won of 225 · balanced$1.0K+$763 lifetime
- 40x8931…a90c95% won of 609 · whale$440+$29K lifetime
- 5DmytroUA82% won of 128$151+$77 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2026?"?
648 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 648 of them. The largest Yes holder is Get10, with $356 on it, $22K lifetime loss over 208 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is bazooka1, with $4.5K on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 236 markets (51% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $78K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
23% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 34 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.