Who's betting on “US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $5.9M volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $5.9M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
62% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
1,495 wallets hold a position worth $1.3M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,492 of them. The largest Yes holder is CARBEACH, with $13K on it, $210K lifetime loss over 4 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $216K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $373 on Yes; 2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $2.8K on No; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $2.7K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 62%
- Holders
- 495
- Money on it
- $73K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 2 · $373
- Insider flags
- 1 · $2.7K
- Smart money share
- 53%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $1.3M
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 2 · $2.8K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| CARBEACH | $13K | -$210K | 75% of 4 |
| BrightStarswhale | $6.5K | +$348K | 78% of 277 |
| betwickwhale | $6.0K | +$636K | 56% of 767 |
| BigRabbitnoise | $5.5K | +$131K | 37% of 1,058 |
| I0I0I0 | $4.6K | -$1.3K | 11% of 83 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | $216K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| pilimili | $102K | -$249K | 78% of 213 |
| carlos484balanced | $94K | +$51K | 62% of 42 |
| Babymunkbalanced | $68K | +$37K | 83% of 59 |
| MoonLambo1205 | $37K | -$44K | 83% of 115 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
- December 31$4.0M vol.Yes 34%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- November 30$335K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: Yes
- March 31$153K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money: No
- September 30$5.6M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- October 15$3.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?"?
1,495 wallets hold a position worth $1.3M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,492 of them. The largest Yes holder is CARBEACH, with $13K on it, $210K lifetime loss over 4 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $216K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $5.9M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
62% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on Yes ($2.7K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.