Who's betting on “US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $4.0M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 34¢ and No at 66¢, a 66% implied chance of No. $4.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
84% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 26 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
1,360 wallets hold a position worth $563K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,354 of them. The largest Yes holder is tsybka, with $31K on it, $336K lifetime profit over 957 markets (84% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $92K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.2K on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.7K on No.
- Smart money share
- 84%
- Holders
- 746
- Money on it
- $189K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 3 · $1.2K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 60%
- Holders
- 614
- Money on it
- $374K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.7K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tsybkawhale | $31K | +$336K | 84% of 957 |
| Bertapotamouswhale | $19K | +$295K | 85% of 1,019 |
| Erasmus.whale | $13K | +$204K | 70% of 828 |
| gexian | $7.1K | +$438 | 46% of 13 |
| Parz1vaIwhale | $5.7K | +$817K | 72% of 1,198 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | $92K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| 0xcf19…6402whale | $16K | +$173K | 54% of 469 |
| MEPPwhale | $15K | +$553K | 62% of 1,070 |
| GayPridewhale | $15K | +$648K | 80% of 670 |
| M2sx92kljs42whale | $14K | +$63K | 78% of 514 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
- October 31$5.9M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- November 30$335K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: Yes
- March 31$153K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money: No
- September 30$5.6M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- October 15$3.7M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? →
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?"?
1,360 wallets hold a position worth $563K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,354 of them. The largest Yes holder is tsybka, with $31K on it, $336K lifetime profit over 957 markets (84% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $92K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 34¢ and No at 66¢, a 66% implied chance of No. $4.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
84% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 26 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.