Who's betting on “Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 76% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 10 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $174K traded all time
- Held now
- $65K by 523 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 66% 277 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 76% 246 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $174K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
66% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
Who holds it
523 wallets hold a position worth $65K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 523 of them. The largest Yes holder is 881112, with $728 on it, $451K lifetime profit over 1,124 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $36K on it, $274K lifetime profit over 907 markets (66% won).
Sharp money
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.1K on No.
- Holders
- 277
- Money on it
- $3.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Holders
- 246
- Money on it
- $62K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 2 · $1.1K
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.1K on it
- 188111260% won of 1,124 · whale$728+$451K lifetime
- 2Jerzy77% won of 283 · whale$386+$52K lifetime
- 3SITIFUKUDZIN55% won of 78$196−$1.4K lifetime
- 4mombil62% won of 1,063 · whale$153+$502K lifetime
- 5TheManInTheSky55% won of 322$124−$4.3K lifetime
No$62K on it
- 1KrackenSruster66% won of 907 · whale$36K+$274K lifetime
- 20x2858Ae37256feA3b5f14b18181F0C5e0AbD55964-176901748072075% won of 8$6.0K−$15K lifetime
- 3How.Dare.You75% won of 1,004$5.3K−$831K lifetime
- 4DumplingBMF70% won of 1,239 · whale$2.1K+$260K lifetime
- 5serferer61% won of 196 · balanced$1.0K+$114 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026?"?
523 wallets hold a position worth $65K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 523 of them. The largest Yes holder is 881112, with $728 on it, $451K lifetime profit over 1,124 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $36K on it, $274K lifetime profit over 907 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $174K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.