Who's betting on “UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 68% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 28 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $124K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.0K by 127 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 68% 32 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 40% 94 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $124K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
68% of the money on Yes and 40% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.
Who holds it
127 wallets hold a position worth $3.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 126 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $30 on it, $325K lifetime profit over 299 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is pookyisback, with $1.0K on it, $85 lifetime loss over 253 markets (79% won).
- Holders
- 33
- Money on it
- $129
- Holders' win rate
- 38%
- Holders
- 94
- Money on it
- $2.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 77%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$129 on it
- 1LlamaLoco000045% won of 299 · noise$30+$325K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$21+$254K lifetime
- 3spartatrading44% won of 1,291 · whale$13+$27K lifetime
- 4Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$12−$485K lifetime
- 5cryptoalphawolf48% won of 169 · balanced$9+$20 lifetime
No$2.8K on it
- 1pookyisback79% won of 253$1.0K−$85 lifetime
- 2Porx84% won of 411 · whale$315+$106K lifetime
- 3WeJustBettin87% won of 230$159−$1.4K lifetime
- 4ip04ri90% won of 10$113+$3 lifetime
- 50xf040…d11f47% won of 793$87−$1.1K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?"?
127 wallets hold a position worth $3.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 126 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $30 on it, $325K lifetime profit over 299 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is pookyisback, with $1.0K on it, $85 lifetime loss over 253 markets (79% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $124K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
68% of the money on Yes and 40% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.