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Who's betting on “Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?”?

Finance$41K traded62 holdersEnds December 31, 2026Updated October 29, 2026
6%Yes
95%No

The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.

Volume
$41K
traded all time
Held now
$16K
by 62 wallets
Smart share · Yes
58%
34 scored holders
Smart share · No
61%
28 scored holders
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What the money says

The odds

Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $41K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

The smart money

58% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.

Who holds it

62 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is ng6000, with $305 on it, $41K lifetime profit over 972 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $5.0K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 770 markets (74% won).

Yes6%
Smart money share58%
7 days ago 58%a day ago 58%now 58%
Holders
34
Money on it
$898
Holders' win rate
63%
No95%
Smart money share61%
7 days ago 61%a day ago 60%now 61%
Holders
28
Money on it
$15K
Holders' win rate
79%

The biggest holders on each side

with their lifetime records

Yes$898 on it

  1. 1ng600080% won of 972 · whale$305+$41K lifetime
  2. 20xAC382928a693C9C342c92feD3552E260aaCfC565-176770608904843% won of 28$226−$1.9K lifetime
  3. 3yippers71% won of 112 · balanced$83+$322 lifetime
  4. 4Rinchon42% won of 190$76−$1.8K lifetime
  5. 5JungPung64% won of 188 · balanced$67+$3.0K lifetime

No$15K on it

  1. 1Avamax74% won of 770 · whale$5.0K+$17K lifetime
  2. 2cryptoincome91% won of 1,010$4.6K−$18K lifetime
  3. 3PACIFIST72% won of 72 · balanced$1.4K+$68 lifetime
  4. 40x74B4F9447B14b12308963FC048Ae363EB0756bEA-176917082615975% won of 417 · whale$1.1K+$41K lifetime
  5. 5lexswitz65% won of 152$930−$2.8K lifetime
Every holder on both sides, scored, on the live signal →
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See what the smart money does next, as it happens.

The live signalEvery holder scored, the smart-money chart since it was first tracked, and the order book.Alerts on this marketStar it and hear when it moves, or when a whale or a proven wallet goes in.Watch trades on SonarEvery Polymarket trade of $50+, live, as an ocean.AI Edge ScannerWhere Polkyo's model and the price disagree, after costs.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?"?

62 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is ng6000, with $305 on it, $41K lifetime profit over 972 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $5.0K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 770 markets (74% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $41K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

58% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.