Who's betting on “Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?”?
Smart money leans No: 48% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 12 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $70K traded all time
- Held now
- $21K by 92 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 36% 55 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 48% 37 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $70K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
36% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 11 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.
Who holds it
92 wallets hold a position worth $21K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 92 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xa0E9e7676D20dDCefae6BAcA2ce51D1ACEbe1f00-1726048946452, with $80 on it, $5.1K lifetime loss over 17 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $8.2K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 770 markets (74% won).
- Holders
- 55
- Money on it
- $487
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $20K
- Holders' win rate
- 78%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$487 on it
- 10xa0E9e7676D20dDCefae6BAcA2ce51D1ACEbe1f00-172604894645253% won of 17$80−$5.1K lifetime
- 2Lewin7733% won of 18$59+$119 lifetime
- 30x65a7…a21651% won of 122$51−$838 lifetime
- 40xd88f…3b4e20% won of 5$48−$54 lifetime
- 5JungPung64% won of 188 · balanced$42+$3.0K lifetime
No$20K on it
- 1Avamax74% won of 770 · whale$8.2K+$17K lifetime
- 2Alegrandebig92% won of 1,242$4.0K−$12K lifetime
- 3orderfill80% won of 182$3.7K−$1.7K lifetime
- 4QMG-VOL71% won of 133$1.6K−$747 lifetime
- 5MaximusGluteusDumpTruckus62% won of 634$598−$16K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
6 more- ↓ $5,200$82K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- ↓ $6,200$76K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
- ↓ $5,800$52K vol.Yes 5%No 96%Smart money: No
- ↑ $8,600$41K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money split
- ↑ $8,200$27K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: No
- ↑ $9,300$15K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?"?
92 wallets hold a position worth $21K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 92 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xa0E9e7676D20dDCefae6BAcA2ce51D1ACEbe1f00-1726048946452, with $80 on it, $5.1K lifetime loss over 17 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $8.2K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 770 markets (74% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $70K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
36% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 11 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.