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Who's betting on “Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?”?

Finance$76K traded139 holdersEnds December 31, 2026Updated October 29, 2026
11%Yes
89%No🧠 smart money

Smart money leans No: 55% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 7 points ahead of the other side.

Volume
$76K
traded all time
Held now
$32K
by 139 wallets
Smart share · Yes
48%
74 scored holders
Smart share · No
55%
64 scored holders
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What the money says

The odds

Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $76K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

The smart money

48% of the money on Yes and 55% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 7 points.

Who holds it

139 wallets hold a position worth $32K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 138 of them. The largest Yes holder is Copezilla, with $706 on it, $9.3K lifetime profit over 217 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is bitcoinmafia, with $5.8K on it, $12K lifetime loss over 1,000 markets (60% won).

Yes11%
Smart money share48%
7 days ago 47%a day ago 48%now 48%
Holders
75
Money on it
$3.6K
Holders' win rate
63%
No89%
🧠 Smart money leans here
Smart money share55%
7 days ago 55%a day ago 54%now 55%
Holders
64
Money on it
$29K
Holders' win rate
73%

The biggest holders on each side

with their lifetime records

Yes$3.6K on it

  1. 1Copezilla50% won of 217 · whale$706+$9.3K lifetime
  2. 2KOMZY85% won of 308$701−$59K lifetime
  3. 3namarian99981% won of 32$562−$9.0K lifetime
  4. 4Liveisbrutal36% won of 139$232−$6.4K lifetime
  5. 5smolbrain0x38% won of 208 · noise$223+$50K lifetime

No$29K on it

  1. 1bitcoinmafia60% won of 1,000$5.8K−$12K lifetime
  2. 20x74B4F9447B14b12308963FC048Ae363EB0756bEA-176917082615975% won of 417 · whale$4.5K+$41K lifetime
  3. 3Alegrandebig92% won of 1,242$3.2K−$12K lifetime
  4. 4Avamax74% won of 770 · whale$1.8K+$17K lifetime
  5. 5prince78761% won of 88$1.6K−$14K lifetime
Every holder on both sides, scored, on the live signal →
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See what the smart money does next, as it happens.

The live signalEvery holder scored, the smart-money chart since it was first tracked, and the order book.Alerts on this marketStar it and hear when it moves, or when a whale or a proven wallet goes in.Watch trades on SonarEvery Polymarket trade of $50+, live, as an ocean.AI Edge ScannerWhere Polkyo's model and the price disagree, after costs.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?"?

139 wallets hold a position worth $32K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 138 of them. The largest Yes holder is Copezilla, with $706 on it, $9.3K lifetime profit over 217 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is bitcoinmafia, with $5.8K on it, $12K lifetime loss over 1,000 markets (60% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $76K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

48% of the money on Yes and 55% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 7 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.