Who's betting on “Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?”?
Smart money leans No: 33% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 8 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $82K traded all time
- Held now
- $38K by 106 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 25% 63 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 33% 43 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $82K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
25% of the money on Yes and 33% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 8 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
Who holds it
106 wallets hold a position worth $38K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 106 of them. The largest Yes holder is KOMZY, with $275 on it, $59K lifetime loss over 308 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is QMG-VOL, with $7.7K on it, $747 lifetime loss over 133 markets (71% won).
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $1.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $36K
- Holders' win rate
- 74%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.3K on it
- 1KOMZY85% won of 308$275−$59K lifetime
- 20x80410B42C59E4E96302851e8432D17dB7eA7EC0f-17760627362090% won of 4$187−$665 lifetime
- 30xblocked5% won of 355$180−$57 lifetime
- 4JungPung64% won of 188 · balanced$116+$3.0K lifetime
- 5Andypro47% won of 200 · balanced$69+$4.1K lifetime
No$36K on it
- 1QMG-VOL71% won of 133$7.7K−$747 lifetime
- 2Last-Stepson55% won of 1,002$5.4K−$22K lifetime
- 3cryptoincome91% won of 1,010$4.8K−$18K lifetime
- 4Avamax74% won of 770 · whale$3.1K+$17K lifetime
- 5orderfill80% won of 182$3.0K−$1.7K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
6 more- ↓ $6,200$76K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
- ↓ $4,500$70K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↓ $5,800$52K vol.Yes 5%No 96%Smart money: No
- ↑ $8,600$41K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money split
- ↑ $8,200$27K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: No
- ↑ $9,300$15K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?"?
106 wallets hold a position worth $38K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 106 of them. The largest Yes holder is KOMZY, with $275 on it, $59K lifetime loss over 308 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is QMG-VOL, with $7.7K on it, $747 lifetime loss over 133 markets (71% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $82K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
25% of the money on Yes and 33% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 8 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.