Who's betting on “Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 85% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 12 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $250K traded all time
- Held now
- $104K by 240 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 85% 74 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 73% 166 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $250K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
85% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
240 wallets hold a position worth $104K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 240 of them. The largest Yes holder is tetrose, with $3.4K on it, $244K lifetime profit over 570 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is thoodr, with $41K on it, $100K lifetime profit over 830 markets (96% won).
- Holders
- 74
- Money on it
- $7.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Holders
- 166
- Money on it
- $97K
- Holders' win rate
- 82%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$7.3K on it
- 1tetrose55% won of 570 · whale$3.4K+$244K lifetime
- 2pretzel79% won of 157 · whale$1.2K+$23K lifetime
- 3GollumGekko73% won of 1,183 · whale$759+$290K lifetime
- 40xE42b5f3C8EC8DC615cA8A073186D27B3934b8444-176800636697250% won of 2$388−$3.4K lifetime
- 5Jest5573% won of 1,084 · whale$280+$145K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Russia military action against EU country by...?
2 more- December 31, 2027$12K vol.Yes 21%No 79%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$43K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?"?
240 wallets hold a position worth $104K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 240 of them. The largest Yes holder is tetrose, with $3.4K on it, $244K lifetime profit over 570 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is thoodr, with $41K on it, $100K lifetime profit over 830 markets (96% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $250K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
85% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.