Who's betting on “Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 51% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 33 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $12K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.3K by 49 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 51% 30 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 18% 19 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
The smart money
51% of the money on Yes and 18% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 32 points.
Who holds it
49 wallets hold a position worth $4.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 49 of them. The largest Yes holder is gods-eye, with $315 on it, $12K lifetime profit over 32 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is Mwhale, with $2.4K on it, $624 lifetime loss over 535 markets (55% won).
- Holders
- 30
- Money on it
- $897
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 19
- Money on it
- $3.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$897 on it
- 1gods-eye59% won of 32 · balanced$315+$12K lifetime
- 2niklaskk0% won of 2$225−$865 lifetime
- 30xcAd94A57e934a7CD21eDbc2C3888687867f10bEB-177300204360050% won of 2$89−$21 lifetime
- 4v1notlost60% won of 202$56−$3.6K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$43+$255K lifetime
No$3.4K on it
- 1Mwhale55% won of 535$2.4K−$624 lifetime
- 2GollumGekko73% won of 1,183 · whale$340+$290K lifetime
- 3pollution39% won of 203$237−$3.6K lifetime
- 4Eia59% won of 1,231 · whale$143+$23K lifetime
- 5MEPP62% won of 1,084 · whale$87+$559K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Russia military action against EU country by...?
2 more- December 31, 2026$250K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$43K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?"?
49 wallets hold a position worth $4.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 49 of them. The largest Yes holder is gods-eye, with $315 on it, $12K lifetime profit over 32 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is Mwhale, with $2.4K on it, $624 lifetime loss over 535 markets (55% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
51% of the money on Yes and 18% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 32 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.