Who's betting on “Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 93% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 37 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $32K traded all time
- Held now
- $8.7K by 58 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 56% 28 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 93% 30 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
56% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 55 points.
Who holds it
58 wallets hold a position worth $8.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is NefariousX, with $285 on it, $34K lifetime loss over 101 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is ifyouloveme, with $2.2K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 512 markets (49% won).
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $690
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Holders
- 30
- Money on it
- $8.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$690 on it
- 1NefariousX67% won of 101$285−$34K lifetime
- 2Snoorrason41% won of 470 · noise$265+$201K lifetime
- 3DerDon56% won of 1,234 · whale$32+$95K lifetime
- 4rocky4201952% won of 800 · whale$23+$19K lifetime
- 5MMNiam74% won of 27$17+$24 lifetime
No$8.0K on it
- 1ifyouloveme49% won of 512 · whale$2.2K+$17K lifetime
- 2BetterFish61% won of 724 · whale$1.2K+$34K lifetime
- 3andy2939% won of 581 · noise$1.1K+$64K lifetime
- 4RememberAmalek73% won of 1,128 · whale$1.0K+$819K lifetime
- 5pieped59% won of 206 · whale$921+$15K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?
4 more- ↓ 30%$47K vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- ↓ 25%$38K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↑ 45%$22K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↑ 50%$20K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?"?
58 wallets hold a position worth $8.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is NefariousX, with $285 on it, $34K lifetime loss over 101 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is ifyouloveme, with $2.2K on it, $17K lifetime profit over 512 markets (49% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
56% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 55 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.