Who's betting on “OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?”?
Tech · $335K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $335K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
78% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
425 wallets hold a position worth $85K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 424 of them. The largest Yes holder is betwick, with $2.3K on it, $636K lifetime profit over 767 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is CryptoLBL, with $20K on it, $1.8K lifetime profit over 18 markets (67% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $445 on No.
- Smart money share
- 78%
- Holders
- 215
- Money on it
- $9.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 74%
- Holders
- 210
- Money on it
- $76K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 1 · $445
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| betwickwhale | $2.3K | +$636K | 56% of 767 |
| gloomerdoomer | $691 | +$0 | - |
| Optimus-whale | $550 | +$120K | 56% of 314 |
| Mr-Krabswhale | $486 | +$65K | 75% of 863 |
| 0xd8876Aa86ef1F1d9F9e7631F5288b28c7BFab877-1762300537319 | $339 | +$12K | 56% of 9 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?"?
425 wallets hold a position worth $85K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 424 of them. The largest Yes holder is betwick, with $2.3K on it, $636K lifetime profit over 767 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is CryptoLBL, with $20K on it, $1.8K lifetime profit over 18 markets (67% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $335K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
78% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.