Who's betting on “Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?”?
Politics · $298K volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 28, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $298K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
79% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 33 points. A week ago, No by 24 points.
80 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 80 of them. The largest Yes holder is e46m3, with $136 on it, $952K lifetime profit over 85,539 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is PollyEmperor, with $494 on it, $2.2K lifetime profit over 226 markets (53% won).
- Smart money share
- 79% ▲ 6 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 52
- Money on it
- $512
- Holders' winrate
- 48%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 53% ▲ 14 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| e46m3whale | $136 | +$952K | 47% of 85,539 |
| BabyGrootwhale | $38 | +$58K | 70% of 863 |
| balthazarwhale | $35 | +$1.2M | 53% of 50,583 |
| suntori | $33 | -$12M | 47% of 69,697 |
| Martinus-balanced | $30 | +$333 | 50% of 113 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| PollyEmperorbalanced | $494 | +$2.2K | 53% of 226 |
| AlAhmeda | $395 | -$96K | 71% of 1,355 |
| aviatowhale | $65 | +$208K | 81% of 1,330 |
| Dr.PNL | $51 | -$483K | 30% of 15,056 |
| garbagefriends | $20 | -$465 | 57% of 335 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
- Oil < $80; D Senate$318K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: No
- Oil ≥ $80; R Senate$149K vol.Yes 32%No 68%Smart money: No
- Oil ≥ $80; D Senate$130K vol.Yes 65%No 35%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms? →
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?"?
80 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 80 of them. The largest Yes holder is e46m3, with $136 on it, $952K lifetime profit over 85,539 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is PollyEmperor, with $494 on it, $2.2K lifetime profit over 226 markets (53% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $298K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 33 points. A week ago, No by 24 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.