Who's betting on “Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?”?
Politics · $130K volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 28, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 65¢ and No at 35¢, a 65% implied chance of Yes. $130K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
78% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 5 points. A week ago, Yes by 66 points.
168 wallets hold a position worth $31K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 168 of them. The largest Yes holder is conherence, with $4.9K on it, $3.6K lifetime profit over 399 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495, with $390 on it, $330K lifetime profit over 12,007 markets (23% won).
- Smart money share
- 78% ▼ 13 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 112
- Money on it
- $30K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 92% ▼ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 56
- Money on it
- $874
- Holders' winrate
- 38%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| conherencebalanced | $4.9K | +$3.6K | 75% of 399 |
| 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225noise | $4.0K | +$119K | 9% of 31,214 |
| e46m3whale | $3.5K | +$952K | 47% of 85,539 |
| RdogTest | $3.2K | -$466 | 88% of 17 |
| LiquidatedDegenwhale | $2.4K | +$86K | 73% of 1,149 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $390 | +$330K | 23% of 12,007 |
| rocky42007whale | $248 | +$15K | 52% of 1,305 |
| pjotrekkknoise | $69 | +$21K | 25% of 1,730 |
| xtxpleasecallmenoise | $38 | +$241K | 40% of 118,361 |
| pelasti | $26 | -$3.1K | 66% of 214 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
- Oil < $80; D Senate$318K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: No
- Oil < $80; R Senate$298K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Oil ≥ $80; R Senate$149K vol.Yes 32%No 68%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?"?
168 wallets hold a position worth $31K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 168 of them. The largest Yes holder is conherence, with $4.9K on it, $3.6K lifetime profit over 399 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495, with $390 on it, $330K lifetime profit over 12,007 markets (23% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 65¢ and No at 35¢, a 65% implied chance of Yes. $130K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
78% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 5 points. A week ago, Yes by 66 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.