Who's betting on “Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?”?
Politics · $149K volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 28, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 32¢ and No at 68¢, a 68% implied chance of No. $149K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
91% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, Yes by 83 points.
110 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 110 of them. The largest Yes holder is Imbleciar, with $5.7K on it, $62K lifetime profit over 34 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is Tenebrus7, with $2.1K on it, $160K lifetime profit over 1,596 markets (66% won).
- Smart money share
- 91%
- Holders
- 55
- Money on it
- $16K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 98%
- Holders
- 55
- Money on it
- $4.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imbleciarwhale | $5.7K | +$62K | 85% of 34 |
| e46m3whale | $3.8K | +$952K | 47% of 85,539 |
| title1whale | $1.0K | +$24K | 58% of 1,328 |
| Martinus-balanced | $794 | +$333 | 50% of 113 |
| 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225noise | $706 | +$119K | 9% of 31,214 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tenebrus7whale | $2.1K | +$160K | 66% of 1,596 |
| prodsetbalanced | $1.8K | +$1.1K | 52% of 430 |
| 0xccf1…e709 | $13 | -$62 | 21% of 71 |
| asdf112dbalanced | $7 | +$498 | 46% of 4,403 |
| asdadzxcxx | $6 | -$890 | 50% of 234 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
- Oil < $80; D Senate$318K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: No
- Oil < $80; R Senate$298K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Oil ≥ $80; D Senate$130K vol.Yes 65%No 35%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?"?
110 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 110 of them. The largest Yes holder is Imbleciar, with $5.7K on it, $62K lifetime profit over 34 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is Tenebrus7, with $2.1K on it, $160K lifetime profit over 1,596 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 32¢ and No at 68¢, a 68% implied chance of No. $149K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
91% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, Yes by 83 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.