Who's betting on “Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?”?
Smart money leans No: 88% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 13 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $86K traded all time
- Held now
- $13K by 173 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 76% 77 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 88% 96 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 32¢ and No at 68¢, a 68% implied chance of No. $86K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
76% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 11 points. A week ago, No by 16 points.
Who holds it
173 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 173 of them. The largest Yes holder is C03B, with $3.8K on it, $347K lifetime profit over 1,198 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is paddaa, with $2.9K on it, $288K lifetime profit over 1,507 markets (58% won).
- Holders
- 77
- Money on it
- $7.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
- Holders
- 96
- Money on it
- $5.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$7.4K on it
- 1C03B85% won of 1,198 · whale$3.8K+$347K lifetime
- 2prodset52% won of 445 · balanced$1.2K+$1.2K lifetime
- 3anoin12359% won of 1,608$879−$4.7M lifetime
- 4lissartter56% won of 2,997$379−$287K lifetime
- 50xa169…1b7350% won of 1,505 · balanced$200+$6.6K lifetime
No$5.4K on it
- 1paddaa58% won of 1,507 · whale$2.9K+$288K lifetime
- 20xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$463+$334K lifetime
- 3donthackme29% won of 87,062 · noise$435+$829K lifetime
- 4balthazar53% won of 52,570 · whale$355+$1.2M lifetime
- 5CT-test52% won of 213 · balanced$235+$23 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
3 more- Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate$125K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate$123K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate$69K vol.Yes 67%No 33%Smart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?"?
173 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 173 of them. The largest Yes holder is C03B, with $3.8K on it, $347K lifetime profit over 1,198 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is paddaa, with $2.9K on it, $288K lifetime profit over 1,507 markets (58% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 32¢ and No at 68¢, a 68% implied chance of No. $86K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
76% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 11 points. A week ago, No by 16 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.