Who's betting on “Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?”?
Smart money leans No: 95% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 16 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $69K traded all time
- Held now
- $16K by 148 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 79% 95 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 95% 53 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 67¢ and No at 33¢, a 67% implied chance of Yes. $69K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
79% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points. A week ago, No by 10 points.
Who holds it
148 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 148 of them. The largest Yes holder is C03B, with $8.1K on it, $347K lifetime profit over 1,198 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is prodset, with $1.5K on it, $1.2K lifetime profit over 445 markets (52% won).
- Holders
- 95
- Money on it
- $14K
- Holders' win rate
- 73%
- Holders
- 53
- Money on it
- $1.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$14K on it
- 1C03B85% won of 1,198 · whale$8.1K+$347K lifetime
- 2lissartter56% won of 2,997$762−$287K lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$682−$377K lifetime
- 4balthazar53% won of 52,447 · whale$529+$1.2M lifetime
- 5MrMelonHead66% won of 381 · whale$468+$12K lifetime
No$1.8K on it
- 1prodset52% won of 445 · balanced$1.5K+$1.2K lifetime
- 2pjotrekkk25% won of 1,786 · noise$65+$20K lifetime
- 3K80PRO56% won of 901$52−$577 lifetime
- 4Leclerc0451% won of 1,214 · balanced$25+$3.8K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$23+$255K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
3 more- Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate$125K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate$123K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate$86K vol.Yes 32%No 68%Smart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?"?
148 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 148 of them. The largest Yes holder is C03B, with $8.1K on it, $347K lifetime profit over 1,198 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is prodset, with $1.5K on it, $1.2K lifetime profit over 445 markets (52% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 67¢ and No at 33¢, a 67% implied chance of Yes. $69K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points. A week ago, No by 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.