Who's betting on “Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 45% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 23 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $123K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.4K by 50 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 45% 34 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 22% 16 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $123K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
45% of the money on Yes and 22% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points. A week ago, Yes by 9 points.
Who holds it
50 wallets hold a position worth $5.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is Martys, with $3 on it, $11K lifetime loss over 364 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is BunCaCham, with $4.1K on it, $163K lifetime loss over 475 markets (85% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $500 on No.
- Holders
- 34
- Money on it
- $10
- Holders' win rate
- 41%
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $5.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 80%
- Snipers
- 1 · $500
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$10 on it
- 1Martys36% won of 364$3−$11K lifetime
- 2SINISTERPETE25% won of 8$2−$3.6K lifetime
- 3Contestable-Parfait61% won of 345 · whale$1+$173K lifetime
- 4thecaricature44% won of 717$1−$7.9K lifetime
- 5garbagecollect266% won of 1,896 · whale$1+$30K lifetime
No$5.4K on it
- 1BunCaCham85% won of 475$4.1K−$163K lifetime
- 2Tenebrus766% won of 1,613 · whale$600+$154K lifetime
- 3JokerTheClown67% won of 1,703 · sniper$500+$95K lifetime
- 4garbagefriends57% won of 336$82−$520 lifetime
- 5v2boring84% won of 88 · balanced$70+$95 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
3 more- Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate$125K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate$86K vol.Yes 32%No 68%Smart money: No
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate$69K vol.Yes 67%No 33%Smart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?"?
50 wallets hold a position worth $5.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is Martys, with $3 on it, $11K lifetime loss over 364 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is BunCaCham, with $4.1K on it, $163K lifetime loss over 475 markets (85% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $123K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
45% of the money on Yes and 22% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 23 points. A week ago, Yes by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.