Who's betting on “Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 89% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 16 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $12K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.7K by 71 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 74% 35 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 89% 36 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
74% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 11 points.
Who holds it
71 wallets hold a position worth $5.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 71 of them. The largest Yes holder is JoeMama4Evah, with $318 on it, $124 lifetime profit over 123 markets (26% won). The largest No holder is MisTKy, with $2.8K on it, $338K lifetime profit over 1,400 markets (62% won).
- Holders
- 35
- Money on it
- $791
- Holders' win rate
- 43%
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $4.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$791 on it
- 1JoeMama4Evah26% won of 123 · noise$318+$124 lifetime
- 2goatboss70% won of 43 · balanced$154+$1.0K lifetime
- 3SamuelOlteanu36% won of 95$112−$490 lifetime
- 4yeeta67% won of 3$28−$71 lifetime
- 5autisem68% won of 279 · whale$26+$2.8K lifetime
No$4.9K on it
- 1MisTKy62% won of 1,400 · whale$2.8K+$338K lifetime
- 2denizz66% won of 1,012 · whale$465+$2.3M lifetime
- 3nongc75% won of 4$361+$355 lifetime
- 4mubs99% won of 202$259−$612 lifetime
- 5ydxistheking59% won of 261 · whale$197+$46K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?"?
71 wallets hold a position worth $5.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 71 of them. The largest Yes holder is JoeMama4Evah, with $318 on it, $124 lifetime profit over 123 markets (26% won). The largest No holder is MisTKy, with $2.8K on it, $338K lifetime profit over 1,400 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.