Who's betting on “Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 99% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 40 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $27K traded all time
- Held now
- $13K by 61 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 59% 34 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 99% 27 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
The smart money
59% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 72 points. A week ago, No by 39 points.
Who holds it
61 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 61 of them. The largest Yes holder is AYTLS, with $185 on it, $3.7K lifetime profit over 124 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960, with $5.6K on it, $123K lifetime profit over 391 markets (65% won).
- Holders
- 34
- Money on it
- $756
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$756 on it
- 1AYTLS65% won of 124 · balanced$185+$3.7K lifetime
- 2ADIAK39% won of 205 · noise$125+$49K lifetime
- 3GrapeFlavoredDrinkMix34% won of 185$78−$2.4K lifetime
- 4kohalacoastgabe56% won of 202$56−$12K lifetime
- 5RHFGFD40% won of 5$55−$25 lifetime
No$12K on it
- 10x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-176070367496065% won of 391 · whale$5.6K+$123K lifetime
- 2nope305061% won of 169 · balanced$4.5K+$4.0K lifetime
- 3ToTheWindow55% won of 441 · whale$528+$36K lifetime
- 40xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$438+$61K lifetime
- 5Notard84% won of 227 · balanced$246+$2.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Israel military action against Beirut by...?
1 moreOther big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?"?
61 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 61 of them. The largest Yes holder is AYTLS, with $185 on it, $3.7K lifetime profit over 124 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960, with $5.6K on it, $123K lifetime profit over 391 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
59% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 72 points. A week ago, No by 39 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.