Who's betting on “France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 78% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 19 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $95K traded all time
- Held now
- $23K by 69 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 60% 46 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 78% 23 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $95K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
60% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
Who holds it
69 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 69 of them. The largest Yes holder is Perypery, with $16 on it, $44K lifetime profit over 473 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is tetrase, with $15K on it, $973K lifetime profit over 1,216 markets (65% won).
- Holders
- 46
- Money on it
- $58
- Holders' win rate
- 45%
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $23K
- Holders' win rate
- 74%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$58 on it
- 1Perypery30% won of 473 · noise$16+$44K lifetime
- 2garbagecollect266% won of 1,896 · whale$7+$30K lifetime
- 30x90d1f174263A54C5CCc546C021BB85C3be9cf62A-174960330457417% won of 18$6−$25K lifetime
- 40xB35Ab2E8d4F2d1D90444776E01cED45e7014C452-176748155266954% won of 356 · whale$4+$2.8K lifetime
- 5BornAgain2680% won of 226$4−$5.1K lifetime
No$23K on it
- 1tetrase65% won of 1,216 · whale$15K+$973K lifetime
- 2stupid2294% won of 985$4.5K−$109K lifetime
- 3Seutervoinen82% won of 525 · whale$1.7K+$127K lifetime
- 4bathenay5100% won of 51 · grinder$874+$392 lifetime
- 5OLOTH98% won of 1,080$292−$21K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?"?
69 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 69 of them. The largest Yes holder is Perypery, with $16 on it, $44K lifetime profit over 473 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is tetrase, with $15K on it, $973K lifetime profit over 1,216 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $95K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
60% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.