Who's betting on “France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 86% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 32 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $116K traded all time
- Held now
- $20K by 66 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 54% 38 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 86% 28 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $116K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 16, 2026.
The smart money
54% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, No by 5 points.
Who holds it
66 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 66 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x097ADCd00bE31FE3C9f4B4FB90034146F49255bF-1778610205674, with $53 on it, $1.3K lifetime loss over 7 markets (29% won). The largest No holder is DFK, with $5.2K on it, $42K lifetime profit over 771 markets (81% won).
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $186
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' win rate
- 76%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$186 on it
- 10x097ADCd00bE31FE3C9f4B4FB90034146F49255bF-177861020567429% won of 7$53−$1.3K lifetime
- 2fledger88% won of 51 · balanced$35+$455 lifetime
- 3Kennyvinno record yet$18+$0 lifetime
- 450cents35% won of 414 · noise$13+$5.8K lifetime
- 5BikesAreTheBikes65% won of 1,351 · whale$9+$101K lifetime
No$19K on it
- 1DFK81% won of 771 · whale$5.2K+$42K lifetime
- 2poli.monaco69% won of 58 · balanced$5.0K+$29K lifetime
- 3tetrase65% won of 1,216 · whale$3.3K+$973K lifetime
- 4stupid2294% won of 985$2.4K−$109K lifetime
- 5QMG-CORE73% won of 1,224 · whale$1.8K+$57K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?"?
66 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 66 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x097ADCd00bE31FE3C9f4B4FB90034146F49255bF-1778610205674, with $53 on it, $1.3K lifetime loss over 7 markets (29% won). The largest No holder is DFK, with $5.2K on it, $42K lifetime profit over 771 markets (81% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $116K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 16, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
54% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, No by 5 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 16, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.