Who's betting on “France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 99% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 61 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $88K traded all time
- Held now
- $12K by 60 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 38% 42 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 99% 18 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $88K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
38% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 61 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points. A week ago, No by 58 points.
Who holds it
60 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is BornAgain26, with $74 on it, $5.1K lifetime loss over 226 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is laureman, with $5.4K on it, $5.7K lifetime profit over 272 markets (71% won).
- Holders
- 42
- Money on it
- $392
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$392 on it
- 1BornAgain2680% won of 226$74−$5.1K lifetime
- 2neutralwave2371% won of 30,851$72−$3.0M lifetime
- 30xF5e47CaF8B2E23aa9230D70758bDb2c9747F471a-174601274498397% won of 242 · balanced$38+$11K lifetime
- 4Perypery30% won of 473 · noise$29+$44K lifetime
- 5lissartter56% won of 2,997$22−$287K lifetime
No$12K on it
- 1laureman71% won of 272 · whale$5.4K+$5.7K lifetime
- 2Poivre26% won of 357 · noise$3.4K+$2.8K lifetime
- 3eCash68% won of 691 · whale$1.5K+$288K lifetime
- 4Tenebrus766% won of 1,613 · whale$678+$154K lifetime
- 5Mattia.Ilenotti63% won of 237 · balanced$387+$1.1K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?"?
60 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is BornAgain26, with $74 on it, $5.1K lifetime loss over 226 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is laureman, with $5.4K on it, $5.7K lifetime profit over 272 markets (71% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $88K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
38% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 61 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points. A week ago, No by 58 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.