Who's betting on “China ballistic missile launch by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 78% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 28 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $17K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.9K by 77 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 50% 41 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 78% 36 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 17¢ and No at 84¢, an 84% implied chance of No. $17K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
50% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
Who holds it
77 wallets hold a position worth $3.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 77 of them. The largest Yes holder is jiudubishu, with $225 on it, $3.3K lifetime loss over 208 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is Chims, with $835 on it, $83K lifetime profit over 1,288 markets (82% won).
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $640
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $3.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 82%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$640 on it
- 1jiudubishu86% won of 208$225−$3.3K lifetime
- 20xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$68+$61K lifetime
- 3mrkinetiq64% won of 211 · whale$55+$15K lifetime
- 4kanhaoleaha83% won of 212 · balanced$51+$209 lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$32+$254K lifetime
No$3.2K on it
- 1Chims82% won of 1,288 · whale$835+$83K lifetime
- 2Porx84% won of 411 · whale$668+$106K lifetime
- 3BerkshireHahaway95% won of 313 · whale$560+$3.2K lifetime
- 4abze78% won of 49$271−$1.7K lifetime
- 5Gaujmalietis96% won of 218 · grinder$161+$4.1K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "China ballistic missile launch by December 31?"?
77 wallets hold a position worth $3.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 77 of them. The largest Yes holder is jiudubishu, with $225 on it, $3.3K lifetime loss over 208 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is Chims, with $835 on it, $83K lifetime profit over 1,288 markets (82% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "China ballistic missile launch by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 17¢ and No at 84¢, an 84% implied chance of No. $17K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
50% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.