Who's betting on “Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”?
Smart money leans No: 83% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 42 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $61K traded all time
- Held now
- $33K by 187 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 41% 83 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 83% 102 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved Yes. $61K has been traded on it.
The smart money
41% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 42 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points. A week ago, No by 42 points.
Who holds it
187 wallets hold a position worth $33K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 185 of them.
- Holders
- 84
- Money on it
- $33K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
- Holders
- 103
- Money on it
- $12
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?
2 more- 41-44%$21K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- 38-41%$12K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?
187 wallets hold a position worth $33K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 185 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"?
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved Yes. $61K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
41% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 42 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points. A week ago, No by 42 points.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 5, 2026 and resolved Yes. $61K has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.