Who's betting on “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?”?
Politics · $1.6M volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $1.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
86% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
507 wallets hold a position worth $406K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 505 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $3.1K on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is hymolu, with $98K on it, $120K lifetime profit over 80 markets (63% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3.4K on No.
- Smart money share
- 86% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 194
- Money on it
- $7.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 87%
- Holders
- 313
- Money on it
- $398K
- Holders' winrate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 2 · $3.4K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalekwhale | $3.1K | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| 5038813185whale | $990 | +$35K | 52% of 104 |
| betwickwhale | $593 | +$636K | 56% of 767 |
| monitoringthesituation1 | $261 | -$841 | 75% of 4 |
| meagainsttheworldwhale | $217 | +$147K | 76% of 1,056 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| hymoluwhale | $98K | +$120K | 63% of 80 |
| Alpheobalanced | $39K | +$9.3K | 80% of 41 |
| zthunderfurywhale | $31K | +$31K | 67% of 516 |
| thoodrwhale | $26K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
| Bukaj0889whale | $16K | +$26K | 95% of 239 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
- December 31$1.9M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money split
- November 30$124K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- September 30$4.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?"?
507 wallets hold a position worth $406K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 505 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $3.1K on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is hymolu, with $98K on it, $120K lifetime profit over 80 markets (63% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $1.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
86% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.