Who's betting on “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?”?
Politics · $124K volume · Ends December 1, 2026 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $124K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
51% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 44 points. A week ago it was split.
76 wallets hold a position worth $65K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 76 of them. The largest Yes holder is monitoringthesituation1, with $2.7K on it, $841 lifetime loss over 4 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is hymolu, with $29K on it, $120K lifetime profit over 80 markets (63% won).
- Smart money share
- 51%
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $6.5K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 96%
- Holders
- 49
- Money on it
- $59K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| monitoringthesituation1 | $2.7K | -$841 | 75% of 4 |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05whale | $1.3K | +$130K | 54% of 537 |
| GayPridewhale | $768 | +$648K | 80% of 670 |
| JustAProfessornoise | $333 | +$17K | 33% of 21 |
| realbengvirwhale | $330 | +$47K | 62% of 37 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| hymoluwhale | $29K | +$120K | 63% of 80 |
| Alpheobalanced | $18K | +$9.3K | 80% of 41 |
| DiaMatbalanced | $3.3K | +$5.2K | 92% of 109 |
| Jin-2026balanced | $1.4K | +$2.6K | 57% of 97 |
| zxdfbdfgngcxvwhale | $1.4K | +$98K | 77% of 1,175 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
- December 31$1.9M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money split
- October 31$1.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- September 30$4.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?"?
76 wallets hold a position worth $65K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 76 of them. The largest Yes holder is monitoringthesituation1, with $2.7K on it, $841 lifetime loss over 4 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is hymolu, with $29K on it, $120K lifetime profit over 80 markets (63% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $124K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
51% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 44 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.