Who's betting on “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?”?
Politics · $1.9M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $1.9M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
85% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
634 wallets hold a position worth $655K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 634 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $39K on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is Votei14Voude22, with $70K on it, $715K lifetime profit over 481 markets (80% won).
- Smart money share
- 85%
- Holders
- 297
- Money on it
- $115K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 86%
- Holders
- 337
- Money on it
- $540K
- Holders' winrate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalekwhale | $39K | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| BigRabbitnoise | $12K | +$131K | 37% of 1,058 |
| GayPridewhale | $11K | +$648K | 80% of 670 |
| 5038813185whale | $7.0K | +$35K | 52% of 104 |
| monitoringthesituation1 | $5.4K | -$841 | 75% of 4 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Votei14Voude22whale | $70K | +$715K | 80% of 481 |
| 65765757whale | $68K | +$255K | 82% of 390 |
| hymoluwhale | $50K | +$120K | 63% of 80 |
| anoin123 | $37K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| mr.oziwhale | $36K | +$763K | 65% of 1,071 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
- October 31$1.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- November 30$124K vol.Yes 10%No 90%Smart money: No
- September 30$4.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?"?
634 wallets hold a position worth $655K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 634 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $39K on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is Votei14Voude22, with $70K on it, $715K lifetime profit over 481 markets (80% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $1.9M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
85% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.