Who's betting on “Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 58 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $564 by 17 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 9 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 29% 8 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 29% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 58 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 58 points. A week ago, Yes by 58 points.
Who holds it
17 wallets hold a position worth $564 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 17 of them. The largest Yes holder is LinaBell, with $16 on it, $138K lifetime profit over 1,060 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is pagliacci4, with $271 on it, $14K lifetime loss over 1,558 markets (93% won).
- Holders
- 9
- Money on it
- $19
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Holders
- 8
- Money on it
- $545
- Holders' win rate
- 81%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$19 on it
- 1LinaBell69% won of 1,060 · whale$16+$138K lifetime
- 2Numitus199449% won of 15,786$1−$28K lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 54,248$1−$378K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$1+$254K lifetime
- 5romanew-cryp86% won of 592 · grinder$0+$887 lifetime
No$545 on it
- 1pagliacci493% won of 1,558$271−$14K lifetime
- 20xf040…d11f47% won of 793$104−$1.1K lifetime
- 3archaic86% won of 1,473 · whale$88+$197K lifetime
- 4EconProf83% won of 396 · balanced$43+$235 lifetime
- 5erFiodena76% won of 383 · balanced$22+$1.0K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?"?
17 wallets hold a position worth $564 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 17 of them. The largest Yes holder is LinaBell, with $16 on it, $138K lifetime profit over 1,060 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is pagliacci4, with $271 on it, $14K lifetime loss over 1,558 markets (93% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 29% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 58 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 58 points. A week ago, Yes by 58 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.