Who's betting on “2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House”?
Politics · $12M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $12M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
53% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 41 points. A week ago, No by 27 points.
1,751 wallets hold a position worth $3.4M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,736 of them. The largest Yes holder is thesingularityisnear, with $131K on it, $1.4M lifetime profit over 6 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is SlavaUkraini, with $310K on it, $726K lifetime profit over 288 markets (75% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $5 on No; the insider radar has flagged 5 wallets betting $270K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 53% ▲ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 752
- Money on it
- $595K
- Holders' winrate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 5 · $270K
- Smart money share
- 83% ▼ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 999
- Money on it
- $2.8M
- Holders' winrate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 1 · $5
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| thesingularityisnear | $131K | +$1.4M | 100% of 6 |
| whoareyoun | $109K | -$144 | 0% of 1 |
| Andylow5 | $106K | +$0 | 100% of 1 |
| randomaccount7 | $32K | +$26K | 50% of 2 |
| Steve1818 | $19K | -$14K | 29% of 7 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| SlavaUkrainiwhale | $310K | +$726K | 75% of 288 |
| plumbiswhale | $247K | +$56K | 64% of 155 |
| schizohedgehogwhale | $155K | +$164K | 80% of 65 |
| BreakTheBankwhale | $142K | +$9.6M | 87% of 612 |
| FlyingPlaty | $133K | -$266K | 100% of 1,112 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House"?
1,751 wallets hold a position worth $3.4M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,736 of them. The largest Yes holder is thesingularityisnear, with $131K on it, $1.4M lifetime profit over 6 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is SlavaUkraini, with $310K on it, $726K lifetime profit over 288 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $12M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
53% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 41 points. A week ago, No by 27 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
5 wallets on Yes ($270K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.