Who's betting on “2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House”?
Politics · $7.9M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 67¢ and No at 34¢, a 67% implied chance of Yes. $7.9M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
83% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 10 points. A week ago, Yes by 10 points.
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $4.3M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,985 of them. The largest Yes holder is ndb1, with $1.6M on it, $2.8M lifetime profit over 1,344 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is thesingularityisnear, with $112K on it, $1.4M lifetime profit over 6 markets (100% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $7.4K on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3 on No; the insider radar has flagged 3 wallets betting $239K on Yes; the insider radar has flagged 2 wallets betting $6.7K on No.
- Smart money share
- 83% ▲ 9 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $4.0M
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 3 · $7.4K
- Insider flags
- 3 · $239K
- Smart money share
- 63%
- Holders
- 999
- Money on it
- $373K
- Holders' winrate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 1 · $3
- Insider flags
- 2 · $6.7K
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ndb1whale | $1.6M | +$2.8M | 61% of 1,344 |
| BreakTheBankwhale | $269K | +$10M | 87% of 609 |
| TeamA | $239K | +$49K | 100% of 1 |
| midterms | $239K | +$0 | - |
| Monopoly_Money | $96K | -$115K | 78% of 241 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| thesingularityisnear | $112K | +$1.4M | 100% of 6 |
| ninjaSnow | $56K | -$2.3K | 100% of 3 |
| 0x10B30364936B03d26B3FD01a63D1f991454b40d4-1723051915288whale | $33K | +$3.9K | 52% of 202 |
| Joe-Bidenwhale | $17K | +$1.5M | 53% of 282 |
| bullishkirby | $16K | -$105K | 78% of 204 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House"?
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $4.3M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,985 of them. The largest Yes holder is ndb1, with $1.6M on it, $2.8M lifetime profit over 1,344 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is thesingularityisnear, with $112K on it, $1.4M lifetime profit over 6 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 67¢ and No at 34¢, a 67% implied chance of Yes. $7.9M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 10 points. A week ago, Yes by 10 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
3 wallets on Yes ($239K) and 2 wallets on No ($6.7K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.