Who's betting on “2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House”?
Politics · $5.2M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 26¢ and No at 75¢, a 75% implied chance of No. $5.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
89% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 14 points. A week ago, Yes by 16 points.
1,603 wallets hold a position worth $1.8M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,594 of them. The largest Yes holder is ndb1, with $561K on it, $2.8M lifetime profit over 1,344 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is BreakTheBank, with $236K on it, $10M lifetime profit over 609 markets (87% won).
11 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.3K on Yes; 4 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3.0K on No; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $14K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 89% ▲ 6 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $1.4M
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 11 · $1.3K
- Insider flags
- 1 · $14K
- Smart money share
- 70% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 603
- Money on it
- $392K
- Holders' winrate
- 82%
- Snipers
- 4 · $3.0K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ndb1whale | $561K | +$2.8M | 61% of 1,344 |
| Sunguyen86 | $200K | +$327K | - |
| lomneivanwhale | $107K | +$133K | 80% of 59 |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaulwhale | $80K | +$1.6M | 60% of 1,014 |
| sportsdood | $36K | +$11K | 100% of 3 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBankwhale | $236K | +$10M | 87% of 609 |
| lissartter | $7.3K | -$270K | 56% of 2,742 |
| su281whale | $6.4K | +$39K | 60% of 1,144 |
| jadexxadesniper | $2.5K | +$119K | 89% of 28 |
| LEICHTT | $2.4K | +$38K | 56% of 16 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House"?
1,603 wallets hold a position worth $1.8M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,594 of them. The largest Yes holder is ndb1, with $561K on it, $2.8M lifetime profit over 1,344 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is BreakTheBank, with $236K on it, $10M lifetime profit over 609 markets (87% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 26¢ and No at 75¢, a 75% implied chance of No. $5.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
89% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 14 points. A week ago, Yes by 16 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on Yes ($14K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.