Who's betting on “Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 91% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 14 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $26K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.6K by 40 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 91% 14 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 77% 26 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 82¢, an 82% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
91% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 55 points. A week ago, Yes by 50 points.
Who holds it
40 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 40 of them. The largest Yes holder is LiquidatedDegen, with $246 on it, $85K lifetime profit over 1,151 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is MasterOfMankind, with $408 on it, $1.0K lifetime profit over 52 markets (27% won).
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $299
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
- Holders
- 26
- Money on it
- $1.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$299 on it
- 1LiquidatedDegen73% won of 1,151 · whale$246+$85K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$14+$255K lifetime
- 3SuSuDORIS59% won of 636$11−$623 lifetime
- 4pv-engine20% won of 49$9−$336 lifetime
- 573f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0.95% won of 698 · grinder$7+$1.3K lifetime
No$1.3K on it
- 1MasterOfMankind27% won of 52 · noise$408+$1.0K lifetime
- 2zxdfbdfgngcxv77% won of 1,234 · whale$178+$83K lifetime
- 30xf51b…ca1b47% won of 1,884 · whale$114+$10K lifetime
- 4MrMelonHead66% won of 381 · whale$93+$12K lifetime
- 5Cattail65% won of 241 · balanced$86+$15K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who will Trump speak to by October 31?
5 more- Ahmed al-Sharaa$66K vol.Yes 17%No 84%Smart money: Yes
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy$28K vol.Yes 16%No 84%Smart money: Yes
- Vladimir Putin$60K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Friedrich Merz$14K vol. · ClosedYes 99%No 1%Smart money: Yes
- Ursula von der Leyen$12K vol. · ClosedYes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?"?
40 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 40 of them. The largest Yes holder is LiquidatedDegen, with $246 on it, $85K lifetime profit over 1,151 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is MasterOfMankind, with $408 on it, $1.0K lifetime profit over 52 markets (27% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 82¢, an 82% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
91% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 55 points. A week ago, Yes by 50 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.