Who's betting on “Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?”?
Weather · $422K volume · Ends January 8, 2027 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $422K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 8, 2027.
77% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 5 points. A week ago it was split.
196 wallets hold a position worth $4.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 196 of them. The largest Yes holder is gopfan2, with $681 on it, $1.7M lifetime profit over 1,012 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $774 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,957 markets (69% won).
- Smart money share
- 77%
- Holders
- 147
- Money on it
- $2.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 61% ▼ 10 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 49
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| gopfan2whale | $681 | +$1.7M | 79% of 1,012 |
| Snow-Whitewhale | $398 | +$5.6K | 66% of 913 |
| 0x8712 | $226 | -$4.3K | 64% of 203 |
| 0x4e25…d7a7whale | $180 | +$252K | 59% of 1,000 |
| fakefinn | $95 | +$1.6K | 83% of 6 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $774 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,957 |
| YesHerr | $276 | -$882 | 98% of 349 |
| tttt123whale | $184 | +$14K | 74% of 212 |
| CodyAnderson4920 | $130 | -$217 | 42% of 200 |
| BornAgain26 | $129 | -$5.9K | 80% of 224 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?"?
196 wallets hold a position worth $4.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 196 of them. The largest Yes holder is gopfan2, with $681 on it, $1.7M lifetime profit over 1,012 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $774 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,957 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $422K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 8, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
77% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 5 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 8, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.