Who's betting on “Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $87K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.3K by 63 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- - 39 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- - 24 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $87K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
63 wallets hold a position worth $4.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 63 of them. The largest Yes holder is lacuna-m1, with $49 on it, $6.6K lifetime loss over 84 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is CP-directional, with $2.4K on it, $679 lifetime loss over 150 markets (94% won).
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $210
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $4.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 92%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$210 on it
- 1lacuna-m155% won of 84$49−$6.6K lifetime
- 20x278f442B68B06e99461C123139d3233265e910b8-177489044580960% won of 10$37−$144 lifetime
- 3Nadmi36% won of 1,266 · noise$20+$156K lifetime
- 4thecaricature44% won of 717$15−$7.9K lifetime
- 5chemp1mln68% won of 3,748$12−$72K lifetime
No$4.1K on it
- 1CP-directional94% won of 150$2.4K−$679 lifetime
- 264MGX75VLQ98% won of 270 · grinder$761+$7.8K lifetime
- 30xDf273e0fE72a613b27de588aaA5237F3B76ae6E4-177305021622177% won of 247 · balanced$214+$4.5K lifetime
- 4MrNoItAll90% won of 515 · whale$162+$38K lifetime
- 5ScientiaRex82% won of 65$141−$2.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?"?
63 wallets hold a position worth $4.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 63 of them. The largest Yes holder is lacuna-m1, with $49 on it, $6.6K lifetime loss over 84 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is CP-directional, with $2.4K on it, $679 lifetime loss over 150 markets (94% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $87K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.