Who's betting on “Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 86% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 33 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $75K traded all time
- Held now
- $21K by 119 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 86% 67 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 53% 51 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 98¢ and No at 2¢, a 98% implied chance of Yes. $75K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
86% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 47 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
Who holds it
119 wallets hold a position worth $21K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 118 of them. The largest Yes holder is iHaveBeenPwned, with $5.8K on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 5 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is rocky42003, with $9 on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,298 markets (52% won).
- Holders
- 67
- Money on it
- $21K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Holders
- 52
- Money on it
- $46
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$21K on it
- 1iHaveBeenPwned80% won of 5$5.8K+$2.3K lifetime
- 20x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427161% won of 6,267 · whale$3.3K+$64K lifetime
- 3WageringGrandma46% won of 112 · noise$1.9K+$199 lifetime
- 4PollyEmperor53% won of 230 · balanced$1.3K+$2.2K lifetime
- 5dpnd39% won of 240 · noise$984+$29K lifetime
No$46 on it
- 1rocky4200352% won of 1,298 · whale$9+$35K lifetime
- 2tradetosurvive145% won of 25,331$7−$217K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$6+$255K lifetime
- 4JsonStatham45% won of 34,820$5−$32K lifetime
- 5variant1.meta65% won of 248 · balanced$3+$5.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
2 more- October 1 - 31, 2026$83K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- September 15 - 30, 2026$19K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$801K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?"?
119 wallets hold a position worth $21K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 118 of them. The largest Yes holder is iHaveBeenPwned, with $5.8K on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 5 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is rocky42003, with $9 on it, $35K lifetime profit over 1,298 markets (52% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 98¢ and No at 2¢, a 98% implied chance of Yes. $75K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
86% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 47 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.