Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 7 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $59K traded all time
- Held now
- $16K by 128 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 80% 65 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 63 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $59K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
80% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
128 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 128 of them. The largest Yes holder is DannyChantom, with $982 on it, $1.9K lifetime profit over 106 markets (42% won). The largest No holder is Contestable-Parfait, with $2.8K on it, $173K lifetime profit over 345 markets (61% won).
- Holders
- 65
- Money on it
- $3.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.2K on it
- 1DannyChantom42% won of 106 · noise$982+$1.9K lifetime
- 2lava-lava47% won of 1,655 · whale$691+$1.2M lifetime
- 3D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC3893558% won of 935 · whale$257+$85K lifetime
- 4purplegatto73% won of 3,487$202−$1.9M lifetime
- 5deuxgaules80% won of 237$151−$2.1K lifetime
No$13K on it
- 1Contestable-Parfait61% won of 345 · whale$2.8K+$173K lifetime
- 2BobbyBakedBeans42% won of 4,648 · whale$2.5K+$25K lifetime
- 30x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$1.4K+$127K lifetime
- 4Chungvicular45% won of 201 · noise$943+$35K lifetime
- 5cigarettes46% won of 49,094$696−$48K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in TX-15 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?"?
128 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 128 of them. The largest Yes holder is DannyChantom, with $982 on it, $1.9K lifetime profit over 106 markets (42% won). The largest No holder is Contestable-Parfait, with $2.8K on it, $173K lifetime profit over 345 markets (61% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $59K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
80% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.